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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 220542
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda.

Satellite, radar and surface data indicate that the area of low
pressure located just north of Tobago in the Windward Islands is
becoming better organized and is producing winds to near tropical
storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further
development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of
days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form
while it moves west-northwestward and then northwestward at 10 to 15
mph across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
The system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday.  Heavy rainfall and strong
gusty winds are likely over much of the Leeward and Windward Islands
during the next couple of days and will spread across Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or Tuesday.  Interests across
the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this low, and
tropical storm watches and warnings will likely be required for
portions of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico later today. An Air
Force Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A strong tropical wave along the west coast of Africa is already
producing thunderstorm activity that is showing some signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
to form on Monday or Tuesday while it moves westward to west-
northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Further information on the system near the Windward Islands can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Blake

Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)

...TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORMS JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
 As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 22
 the center of Karen was located near 11.9, -60.2
 with movement WNW at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 220857
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORMS JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 60.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM E OF GRENADA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Trinidad and Tobago. The Trinidad and Tobago
Meteorological Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Grenada and its dependencies.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued later today for other
portions of the Windward Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely
be issued later today for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Elsewhere, interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Karen.


For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Storm
Karen was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 60.2 West.
Karen is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and
this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward
the northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn
toward the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Karen will move
across the Windward Islands this afternoon and tonight, and emerge
over the southeastern Caribbean Sea Monday morning. On Tuesday,
Karen is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.  Barbados recently reported a sustained wind of
37 mph (59 km/h) and a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach those
islands within the warning area later this morning and afternoon,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL:  Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

Far northeastern Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 220857
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THE TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
ELSEWHERE...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  60.2W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  60.2W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N  59.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.5N  61.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.4N  63.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.7N  64.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.1N  65.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.9N  65.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 23.4N  65.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 25.6N  65.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N  60.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 220900
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

Scatterometer surface wind data and observations from the Windward
Islands indicate that the low pressure system just east of Tobago
has become better defined. Infrared and microwave satellite imagery
also show that deep convection has increased and has become better
organized around the center. Barbados recently reported a 10-minute
wind of 32 kt gusting to 39 kt, and the earlier scatterometer data
showed a large field of 30-32 kt winds in the eastern semicircle.
Based on these data, the low has been upgraded to Tropical Storm
Karen. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the southern
Windward Islands as a result.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 285/10 kt. The latest
NHC model guidance is in very good agreement on Karen moving
northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer
ridge for the next 24-36 hours, followed by a turn toward the north
into a break in the ridge currently located over the northern
Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. In the 72-96 hour period, Karen is
forecast to slow down and possibly even stall and turn westward on
day 5 as another large ridge moves eastward across the southeastern
United States and builds to the north of the cyclone. The official
track forecast lies close to the tightly packed consensus track
models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and TVCX.

Little, if any, change in intensity is expected for the next 48
hours due to strong northeasterly vertical wind shear. However, the
upper-level flow is expected to be difluent, which should help Karen
maintain its current intensity despite the otherwise unfavorable
shear conditions. By 72 hours and beyond, Karen is forecast to move
underneath an upper-level anticyclone, which should result in a
significant decrease in the shear and also enhance the upper-level
outflow, allowing for some strengthening to occur. The NHC intensity
forecast closely follows a blend of the the intensity consensus
models IVCN and HCCA, and the Decay-SHIPS model.

A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands later today, and Tropical Storm Warnings may be
issued for other areas in the Windward Islands later this morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 11.9N  60.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 12.5N  61.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 13.4N  63.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 14.7N  64.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 16.1N  65.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 19.9N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 23.4N  65.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 25.6N  65.6W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019                                              

000
FONT12 KNHC 220857
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122019               
0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   1(17)   X(17)
SAN JUAN PR    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  28(35)   1(36)   X(36)
VIEQUES PR     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
VIEQUES PR     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  29(35)   2(37)   X(37)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  23(36)   1(37)   1(38)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   9(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 
SABA           34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   8(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   6(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
AVES           34  X   2( 2)  20(22)  11(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)
AVES           50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DOMINICA       34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  3   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34 19   7(26)   X(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34 53  11(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
 
BARBADOS       34 37   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 
GRENADA        34 18  20(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 17   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Karen Update Statement

Issued at 510 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019  

000
WTNT62 KNHC 220908
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
510 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St.
Vincent and the Grenadines.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Karen Graphics

Tropical Storm Karen 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 09:05:23 GMT

Tropical Storm Karen 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 09:32:33 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

...JERRY TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
 As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 22
 the center of Jerry was located near 25.0, -66.9
 with movement NNW at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 20

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 220900
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...JERRY TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 66.9W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 66.9 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected on Monday, followed by a turn toward
the northeast late Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 20

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 220859
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N  66.9W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  90SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N  66.9W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  66.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 26.3N  67.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.6N  68.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.0N  68.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.4N  68.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 34.0N  65.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 110SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 39.0N  57.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 43.0N  47.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N  66.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 20

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 220901
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

A very large burst of deep convection has formed near Jerry, but
there is no sign from recent microwave data that it is causing any
significant change in structure.  The center still appears
to be on the northwestern edge of the deep convection, which is
consistent with a tropical cyclone undergoing moderate-to-strong
northwesterly shear.  The initial wind speed is held at 55 kt, a bit
above the ASCAT pass from several hours ago, but at that time the
center was exposed, so it is reasonable to think the system is a bit
stronger than shown in that pass.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft should investigate the system around 1200 UTC.

Overall, there are a lot of mixed signals with the future strength
of Jerry.  While the storm should remain over very warm waters, any
relaxation of the current shear isn't expected to last very long,
and the consensus of the models is that an expected mid-latitude
trough interaction should lead to much weakening or strengthening.
Thus, little change in strength is shown throughout the period,
similar to the last forecast, and only slight weakening is shown at
long range as Jerry undergoes the first stages of extratropical
transition.

The initial motion is slower to the north-northwest, 330/10 kt.
The biggest change from the past advisory is shifting the forecast
track westward about half a degree in about 48 hours, with more of
the models showing that the aforementioned trough interaction will
steer the storm more to the left.  Jerry should then accelelerate
to the northeast ahead of the next mid-latitude trough, and the
forecast track is a little faster at long range.


Key Messages:

1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing,
with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday.
It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on
Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.
A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued later today for Bermuda.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 25.0N  66.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 26.3N  67.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 27.6N  68.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 29.0N  68.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 30.4N  68.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 34.0N  65.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 39.0N  57.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 43.0N  47.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019                                              

000
FONT15 KNHC 220900
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)  34(44)   2(46)   X(46)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   2(12)   X(12)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics

Tropical Storm Jerry 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 09:01:21 GMT

Tropical Storm Jerry 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 09:25:27 GMT