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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241736
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Epsilon, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean.

Satellite, radar and surface data indicate that an area of low 
pressure located about 125 miles west-southwest of Grand Cayman 
Island continues to become better organized, and if current trends 
continue, advisories will be initiated on a tropical depression this 
afternoon or evening.  Environmental conditions are conducive for 
further development while the low drifts toward the north and 
northwest this weekend. The system could move near western Cuba on 
Monday and move across the southern Gulf of Mexico or the 
northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday.  Interests 
in western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the 
progress of this low.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance 
aircraft is en route to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. 
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible 
over portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and northeastern 
Yucatan through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)

...LARGE HURRICANE EPSILON ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Oct 24
 the center of Epsilon was located near 39.4, -58.2
 with movement NE at 22 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 958 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 24

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 242056
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
500 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020
 
...LARGE HURRICANE EPSILON ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD...
...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 58.2W
ABOUT 615 MI...985 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was 
located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 58.2 West. Epsilon is 
moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). Additional 
acceleration toward the northeast is expected through Sunday. A 
continued fast northeastward to east-northeastward motion is 
forecast to occur Sunday evening into early next week.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Only slow weakening is expected over the weekend.  Epsilon
is forecast to become a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone 
by late Sunday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 425
miles (685 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto

Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 24

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 242055
TCMAT2
 
HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL272020
2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N  58.2W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  19 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE  80SE  90SW   0NW.
50 KT.......180NE 160SE 130SW 140NW.
34 KT.......370NE 290SE 200SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 480SE 520SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N  58.2W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.6N  59.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 41.5N  54.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  80SE  90SW   0NW.
50 KT...160NE 150SE 130SW 100NW.
34 KT...330NE 310SE 250SW 240NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 44.9N  46.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT...100NE 130SE 130SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 340SE 300SW 240NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 48.9N  35.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 130SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 370SE 360SW 400NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 53.5N  25.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE 130SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 370SE 400SW 400NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 58.5N  19.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...270NE 370SE 400SW 400NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N  58.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LATTO

Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 24

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020  

513 
WTNT42 KNHC 242056
TCDAT2
 
Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
500 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020
 
Epsilon continues to exhibit an inner core of deep convection. In 
fact, only in the past couple of hours has the eye become difficult 
to locate in satellite images. A larger comma-shaped cloud shield 
surrounds the circulation, and extends several hundred miles from 
the center. Epsilon passed over a buoy array this morning where 
pressures as low as 957.6 mb were recorded. In addition, a pair of 
ASCAT overpasses late this morning showed a large area of winds of 
60-65 kt in the southern semicircle. This data supported an 
intensity of 70 kt earlier, and the cyclone's appearance has not 
changed much since then. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 70 
kt.

The hurricane will likely hold its own for the next 6-12 h as it 
traverses over waters of about 24 C, while in a fairly favorable 
atmospheric environment downstream of a mid- to upper-level trough. 
After 12 h, Epsilon should begin to move over waters of 20 degrees C 
or less. The combination of the much cooler water temperatures and 
trough interaction should cause the cyclone to begin an 
extratropical transition that is forecast to complete by late 
Sunday. The NHC intensity forecast was nudged a little higher in the 
24-48 h time frames due to a slight increase in the guidance, and 
the latest forecast is very near the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. 
Regardless of exactly when Epsilon becomes extratropical, it is 
still expected to remain a very large and powerful cyclone until it 
merges with a larger low to its north in a few days. 

Epsilon is accelerating and is now moving northeastward at 19 kt. 
The cyclone should continue accelerating toward the northeast 
through Sunday in the mid-latitude westerlies, and could reach a 
forward motion of about 40 kt toward the northeast or east-northeast 
by Sunday evening. This fast motion is expected to continue through 
early next week. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the 
previous one, and is in good agreement with the tightly clustered 
track guidance.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 39.4N  58.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 41.5N  54.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 44.9N  46.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  26/0600Z 48.9N  35.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  26/1800Z 53.5N  25.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  27/0600Z 58.5N  19.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto

Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020                                              

515 
FONT12 KNHC 242056
PWSAT2
                                                                    
HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL272020               
2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
39.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X  47(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  1  12(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LATTO

Hurricane Epsilon Graphics

Hurricane Epsilon 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Oct 2020 20:58:31 GMT

Hurricane Epsilon 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Oct 2020 21:25:07 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight (AT3/AL282020)

...2020 PRODUCES YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PART OF WESTERN CUBA...
 As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 24
 the center of Twenty-Eight was located near 18.7, -83.0
 with movement NNW at 2 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 242053
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020
 
...2020 PRODUCES YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PART OF WESTERN CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 83.0W
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
province of Pinar del Rio.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of 
the depression.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Eight was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 83.0
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 
mph (4 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early
Sunday.  The system should gradually turn toward the west-northwest 
with a faster forward speed by Monday.  On the forecast track, the 
center of the depression is anticipated to remain south of Cuba 
tomorrow and approach the Yucatan Channel or Yucatan Peninsula late 
Monday before emerging into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the 
system is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday and could 
become a hurricane over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. 

RAINFALL: Across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys, storm total rainfall of 4 
to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through 
Wednesday. 
 
WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are possible in the watch area
on Monday.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 242052
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL282020
2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 
THE DEPRESSION.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N  83.0W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N  83.0W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  83.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.0N  83.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.5N  83.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.1N  84.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.9N  85.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 22.0N  87.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.4N  89.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  30SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N  91.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 35.5N  84.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N  83.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 242059
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020
 
Satellite imagery and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate 
that the broad area of low pressure that NHC has been following for 
the past couple of days has consolidated enough to be considered a 
tropical depression.  GOES-16 1-minute data shows the center pretty 
clearly, with a new area of convection close by, and a minimum 
pressure of 1005 mb was reported by the aircraft in that area. The 
surface winds were generally fairly light within about a degree of 
the center, but data from the plane supports a 25-kt initial 
intensity.
 
The tropical depression hasn't been moving much, but recently it has 
started at least drifting toward the north-northwest.  A shortwave 
trough moving across the southeastern United States should keep the 
cyclone in a rather weak steering pattern during the next day or so, 
with only a northwest drift anticipated.   Mid-level ridging should 
build over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, forcing the 
depression to move faster to the west-northwest toward the Yucatan 
Peninsula or Channel.  The ridge shouldn't last too long, however, 
with a substantial upper-level low forecast to eject out of the 
southwestern United States in a few days, causing the tropical 
cyclone to sharply turn to the north and northeast on Wednesday.  
The guidance isn't in very good agreement, and these types of trough 
ejection scenarios can have significant timing differences.  At 
this time, the NHC track forecast leans a little more on the global 
models than the regional hurricane models, and is just west of the 
model consensus.
 
While the large-scale shear is fairly light at the moment, the low- 
and mid-level circulations of the depression are not well-aligned. 
Thus, it might take some time for the system to strengthen despite 
low shear and very warm waters.  In a day or two, the depression 
will likely have a structure that supports a faster rate of 
strengthening, and the intensification rate is increased while the 
cyclone is near the Yucatan.  Although the forecast shows the 
system reaching hurricane strength in the southern Gulf of Mexico, 
this is rather uncertain given the potential land interaction and 
only a narrow area of favorable upper-level winds.  A combination of 
cooler shelf waters and increasing shear will likely weaken the 
cyclone below hurricane strength as it approaches the northern Gulf 
Coast. However, strong tropical storms can still produce significant 
storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts, and residents in this 
region will yet again need to monitor another tropical cyclone 
moving northward across the Gulf. 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm
Sunday and could bring tropical storm conditions to extreme western
Cuba on Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. There is 
also a risk of tropical storm conditions in the northern Yucatan 
Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.
 
2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of
central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Keys. This
rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.
 
3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a
tropical storm on Wednesday, and could bring storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the
depression and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 18.7N  83.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 19.0N  83.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 19.5N  83.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 20.1N  84.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 20.9N  85.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  27/0600Z 22.0N  87.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 23.4N  89.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 27.5N  91.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 35.5N  84.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020                                              

000
FONT13 KNHC 242053
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL282020               
2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-EIGHT WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)
 
BIRMINGHAM AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)
MONTGOMERY AL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)
WHITING FLD FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  17(20)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  12(19)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  17(22)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  15(21)
STENNIS MS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  14(23)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  17(22)  10(32)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  13(21)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  25(29)   6(35)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  11(18)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  10(20)
MORGAN CITY LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
MORGAN CITY LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
ALEXANDRIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)
LAFAYETTE LA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   8(16)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  20(22)   2(24)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
FORT POLK LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
 
CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   2(11)
 
JASPER TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
MATAGORDA TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)  12(26)   1(27)   X(27)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  20(28)  12(40)   X(40)   X(40)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
HAVANA         34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PENSACOLA NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  16(21)
PENSACOLA NAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
PENSACOLA NAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
KEESLER AB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  15(24)
KEESLER AB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Graphics

Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Oct 2020 20:54:53 GMT

Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Oct 2020 21:32:29 GMT