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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 220542 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda. Satellite, radar and surface data indicate that the area of low pressure located just north of Tobago in the Windward Islands is becoming better organized and is producing winds to near tropical storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form while it moves west-northwestward and then northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are likely over much of the Leeward and Windward Islands during the next couple of days and will spread across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or Tuesday. Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this low, and tropical storm watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico later today. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A strong tropical wave along the west coast of Africa is already producing thunderstorm activity that is showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form on Monday or Tuesday while it moves westward to west- northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. && Further information on the system near the Windward Islands can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Blake
Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)
...TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORMS JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 22 the center of Karen was located near 11.9, -60.2 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 220857 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORMS JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 60.2W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM E OF GRENADA ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Trinidad and Tobago. The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Grenada and its dependencies. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Trinidad and Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued later today for other portions of the Windward Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be issued later today for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Elsewhere, interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 60.2 West. Karen is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Karen will move across the Windward Islands this afternoon and tonight, and emerge over the southeastern Caribbean Sea Monday morning. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. Barbados recently reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h) and a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach those islands within the warning area later this morning and afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. Far northeastern Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 220857 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THE TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 60.2W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 60.2W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 59.8W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.5N 61.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.4N 63.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.7N 64.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.1N 65.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.9N 65.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 23.4N 65.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 25.6N 65.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 60.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220900 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 Scatterometer surface wind data and observations from the Windward Islands indicate that the low pressure system just east of Tobago has become better defined. Infrared and microwave satellite imagery also show that deep convection has increased and has become better organized around the center. Barbados recently reported a 10-minute wind of 32 kt gusting to 39 kt, and the earlier scatterometer data showed a large field of 30-32 kt winds in the eastern semicircle. Based on these data, the low has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Karen. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the southern Windward Islands as a result. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 285/10 kt. The latest NHC model guidance is in very good agreement on Karen moving northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 24-36 hours, followed by a turn toward the north into a break in the ridge currently located over the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. In the 72-96 hour period, Karen is forecast to slow down and possibly even stall and turn westward on day 5 as another large ridge moves eastward across the southeastern United States and builds to the north of the cyclone. The official track forecast lies close to the tightly packed consensus track models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and TVCX. Little, if any, change in intensity is expected for the next 48 hours due to strong northeasterly vertical wind shear. However, the upper-level flow is expected to be difluent, which should help Karen maintain its current intensity despite the otherwise unfavorable shear conditions. By 72 hours and beyond, Karen is forecast to move underneath an upper-level anticyclone, which should result in a significant decrease in the shear and also enhance the upper-level outflow, allowing for some strengthening to occur. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA, and the Decay-SHIPS model. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands later today, and Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued for other areas in the Windward Islands later this morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 11.9N 60.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 12.5N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 13.4N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 14.7N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 16.1N 65.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 19.9N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 23.4N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 25.6N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tropical Storm Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019
000
FONT12 KNHC 220857
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) X(17)
SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 28(35) 1(36) X(36)
VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 29(35) 2(37) X(37)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 23(36) 1(37) 1(38)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 1(14) X(14)
SABA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 1(15) X(15)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
AVES 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 11(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34)
AVES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
DOMINICA 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MARTINIQUE 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAINT LUCIA 34 19 7(26) X(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
SAINT VINCENT 34 53 11(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
BARBADOS 34 37 X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
GRENADA 34 18 20(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 17 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Karen Update Statement
Issued at 510 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT62 KNHC 220908 TCUAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 510 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES... The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Vincent and the Grenadines. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tropical Storm Karen Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 09:05:23 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 09:32:33 GMT
Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
...JERRY TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 22 the center of Jerry was located near 25.0, -66.9 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 20
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 220900 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...JERRY TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 66.9W ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 66.9 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected on Monday, followed by a turn toward the northeast late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 20
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 220859 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 66.9W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 66.9W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 66.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 26.3N 67.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.6N 68.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.0N 68.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.4N 68.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 34.0N 65.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 110SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 39.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 43.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 66.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 20
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 220901 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 A very large burst of deep convection has formed near Jerry, but there is no sign from recent microwave data that it is causing any significant change in structure. The center still appears to be on the northwestern edge of the deep convection, which is consistent with a tropical cyclone undergoing moderate-to-strong northwesterly shear. The initial wind speed is held at 55 kt, a bit above the ASCAT pass from several hours ago, but at that time the center was exposed, so it is reasonable to think the system is a bit stronger than shown in that pass. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft should investigate the system around 1200 UTC. Overall, there are a lot of mixed signals with the future strength of Jerry. While the storm should remain over very warm waters, any relaxation of the current shear isn't expected to last very long, and the consensus of the models is that an expected mid-latitude trough interaction should lead to much weakening or strengthening. Thus, little change in strength is shown throughout the period, similar to the last forecast, and only slight weakening is shown at long range as Jerry undergoes the first stages of extratropical transition. The initial motion is slower to the north-northwest, 330/10 kt. The biggest change from the past advisory is shifting the forecast track westward about half a degree in about 48 hours, with more of the models showing that the aforementioned trough interaction will steer the storm more to the left. Jerry should then accelelerate to the northeast ahead of the next mid-latitude trough, and the forecast track is a little faster at long range. Key Messages: 1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing, with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry. A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued later today for Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 25.0N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 26.3N 67.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 27.6N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 29.0N 68.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 30.4N 68.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 34.0N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 39.0N 57.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 43.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019
000
FONT15 KNHC 220900
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
BERMUDA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 34(44) 2(46) X(46)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 09:01:21 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 09:25:27 GMT