Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Current Atlantic Satellite Loop
Visit Weather Underground Tropical Weather Center
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 241736 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Epsilon, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean. Satellite, radar and surface data indicate that an area of low pressure located about 125 miles west-southwest of Grand Cayman Island continues to become better organized, and if current trends continue, advisories will be initiated on a tropical depression this afternoon or evening. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development while the low drifts toward the north and northwest this weekend. The system could move near western Cuba on Monday and move across the southern Gulf of Mexico or the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday. Interests in western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this low. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft is en route to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and northeastern Yucatan through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
...LARGE HURRICANE EPSILON ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Oct 24 the center of Epsilon was located near 39.4, -58.2 with movement NE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 24
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 242056 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 ...LARGE HURRICANE EPSILON ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.4N 58.2W ABOUT 615 MI...985 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 58.2 West. Epsilon is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). Additional acceleration toward the northeast is expected through Sunday. A continued fast northeastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast to occur Sunday evening into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is expected over the weekend. Epsilon is forecast to become a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone by late Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 425 miles (685 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 24
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 242055 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 58.2W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 80SE 90SW 0NW. 50 KT.......180NE 160SE 130SW 140NW. 34 KT.......370NE 290SE 200SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 480SE 520SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 58.2W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 59.4W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 41.5N 54.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 80SE 90SW 0NW. 50 KT...160NE 150SE 130SW 100NW. 34 KT...330NE 310SE 250SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 44.9N 46.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 130SE 130SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 340SE 300SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 48.9N 35.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 130SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 370SE 360SW 400NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 53.5N 25.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 130SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 370SE 400SW 400NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 58.5N 19.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...270NE 370SE 400SW 400NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N 58.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 24
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 513 WTNT42 KNHC 242056 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 Epsilon continues to exhibit an inner core of deep convection. In fact, only in the past couple of hours has the eye become difficult to locate in satellite images. A larger comma-shaped cloud shield surrounds the circulation, and extends several hundred miles from the center. Epsilon passed over a buoy array this morning where pressures as low as 957.6 mb were recorded. In addition, a pair of ASCAT overpasses late this morning showed a large area of winds of 60-65 kt in the southern semicircle. This data supported an intensity of 70 kt earlier, and the cyclone's appearance has not changed much since then. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 70 kt. The hurricane will likely hold its own for the next 6-12 h as it traverses over waters of about 24 C, while in a fairly favorable atmospheric environment downstream of a mid- to upper-level trough. After 12 h, Epsilon should begin to move over waters of 20 degrees C or less. The combination of the much cooler water temperatures and trough interaction should cause the cyclone to begin an extratropical transition that is forecast to complete by late Sunday. The NHC intensity forecast was nudged a little higher in the 24-48 h time frames due to a slight increase in the guidance, and the latest forecast is very near the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Regardless of exactly when Epsilon becomes extratropical, it is still expected to remain a very large and powerful cyclone until it merges with a larger low to its north in a few days. Epsilon is accelerating and is now moving northeastward at 19 kt. The cyclone should continue accelerating toward the northeast through Sunday in the mid-latitude westerlies, and could reach a forward motion of about 40 kt toward the northeast or east-northeast by Sunday evening. This fast motion is expected to continue through early next week. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the tightly clustered track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 39.4N 58.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 41.5N 54.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 44.9N 46.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 26/0600Z 48.9N 35.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 26/1800Z 53.5N 25.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 27/0600Z 58.5N 19.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020
515
FONT12 KNHC 242056
PWSAT2
HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
39.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 47(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 1 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
SABLE ISLAND 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER LATTO
Hurricane Epsilon Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Oct 2020 20:58:31 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Oct 2020 21:25:07 GMT
Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight (AT3/AL282020)
...2020 PRODUCES YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PART OF WESTERN CUBA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 the center of Twenty-Eight was located near 18.7, -83.0 with movement NNW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 242053 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 ...2020 PRODUCES YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PART OF WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 83.0W ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the province of Pinar del Rio. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 83.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early Sunday. The system should gradually turn toward the west-northwest with a faster forward speed by Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is anticipated to remain south of Cuba tomorrow and approach the Yucatan Channel or Yucatan Peninsula late Monday before emerging into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday and could become a hurricane over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Florida Keys, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday. WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 242052 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PINAR DEL RIO CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 83.0W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 83.0W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 83.0W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.0N 83.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.5N 83.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.1N 84.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.9N 85.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 22.0N 87.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.4N 89.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 91.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 83.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 242059 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 Satellite imagery and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the broad area of low pressure that NHC has been following for the past couple of days has consolidated enough to be considered a tropical depression. GOES-16 1-minute data shows the center pretty clearly, with a new area of convection close by, and a minimum pressure of 1005 mb was reported by the aircraft in that area. The surface winds were generally fairly light within about a degree of the center, but data from the plane supports a 25-kt initial intensity. The tropical depression hasn't been moving much, but recently it has started at least drifting toward the north-northwest. A shortwave trough moving across the southeastern United States should keep the cyclone in a rather weak steering pattern during the next day or so, with only a northwest drift anticipated. Mid-level ridging should build over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, forcing the depression to move faster to the west-northwest toward the Yucatan Peninsula or Channel. The ridge shouldn't last too long, however, with a substantial upper-level low forecast to eject out of the southwestern United States in a few days, causing the tropical cyclone to sharply turn to the north and northeast on Wednesday. The guidance isn't in very good agreement, and these types of trough ejection scenarios can have significant timing differences. At this time, the NHC track forecast leans a little more on the global models than the regional hurricane models, and is just west of the model consensus. While the large-scale shear is fairly light at the moment, the low- and mid-level circulations of the depression are not well-aligned. Thus, it might take some time for the system to strengthen despite low shear and very warm waters. In a day or two, the depression will likely have a structure that supports a faster rate of strengthening, and the intensification rate is increased while the cyclone is near the Yucatan. Although the forecast shows the system reaching hurricane strength in the southern Gulf of Mexico, this is rather uncertain given the potential land interaction and only a narrow area of favorable upper-level winds. A combination of cooler shelf waters and increasing shear will likely weaken the cyclone below hurricane strength as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast. However, strong tropical storms can still produce significant storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts, and residents in this region will yet again need to monitor another tropical cyclone moving northward across the Gulf. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm Sunday and could bring tropical storm conditions to extreme western Cuba on Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. There is also a risk of tropical storm conditions in the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. 2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Keys. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. 3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a tropical storm on Wednesday, and could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the depression and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 18.7N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 19.0N 83.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 19.5N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 20.1N 84.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 20.9N 85.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 22.0N 87.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 23.4N 89.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 27.5N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020
000
FONT13 KNHC 242053
PWSAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020
2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-EIGHT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)
BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15)
MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19)
WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21)
STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 10(32)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 6(35)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20)
MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13)
LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 2(24)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11)
JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 12(26) 1(27) X(27)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 20(28) 12(40) X(40) X(40)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21)
PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24)
KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Oct 2020 20:54:53 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Oct 2020 21:32:29 GMT