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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221102
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 22 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Lorena, located over the central Gulf of California,
on Tropical Depression Mario, located a few hundred miles south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Tropical Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the
basin.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)

...KIKO WEAKER BUT EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN ON MONDAY...
 As of 11:00 PM HST Sat Sep 21
 the center of Kiko was located near 17.0, -132.9
 with movement SW at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 40

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 220857
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
1100 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019

...KIKO WEAKER BUT EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 132.9W
ABOUT 1545 MI...2485 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 132.9 West. Kiko is
moving toward the southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward
the southwest or west-southwest is forecast to occur through Sunday
night, followed by a westward to northwestward motion Monday and
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Some re-strengthening could begin late Sunday, but is
forecast to be short-lived with weakening anticipated by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 40

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019  

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 220856
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 132.9W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 132.9W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 132.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.3N 133.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.7N 135.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  10SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.0N 136.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.3N 137.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.5N 139.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 19.0N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 18.0N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 132.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 40

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019  

509 
WTPZ43 KNHC 220858
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
1100 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019

A small but growing burst of deep convection has resumed near the
center of Kiko, but the cyclone is considerably weaker than earlier
today. ASCAT data indicated maximum winds of 30-35 kt, and
35 kt will be the initial intensity.  Within about 24 hours, Kiko
has a chance to re-strengthen as it moves over warmer waters in a
lighter shear region.  Model agreement is in fairly good agreement
on tenacious Kiko intensifying once again.  However, Kiko should
resume weakening again in about 3 days due to a significant
increase in shear and cooler waters, and hopefully the next 48 hours
are the last hurrah of Kiko.

Kiko is moving southwestward tonight at about 7 kt.  The storm
should continue to lose latitude for about the next 24 hours due to
the orientation of a ridge to the northwest. After that time,
the western portion of an incoming mid-latitude trough is forecast
to cut off east of the Hawaiian Islands, causing Kiko to turn
sharply northwestward on days 2-4. Once a remnant low, Kiko is then
expected to be steered by lower-level flow, causing it to turn back
to the southwest.  No significant changes were made to the sinuous
forecast track and, if Kiko survives as long as predicted below, it
would end up one of the 10 longest-lasting tropical cyclones in
eastern Pacific history.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 17.0N 132.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 16.3N 133.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 15.7N 135.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 16.0N 136.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 17.3N 137.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 19.5N 139.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 19.0N 140.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/0600Z 18.0N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019                                              

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 220857
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  40             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019               
0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 135W       34  1  13(14)  13(27)   1(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)
15N 135W       50  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
15N 135W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
15N 140W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   7(22)   1(23)
20N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics

Tropical Storm Kiko 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 08:57:55 GMT

Tropical Storm Kiko 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 09:39:01 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression Mario (EP4/EP142019)

...MARIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...
 As of 3:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 22
 the center of Mario was located near 21.0, -111.3
 with movement NNW at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Mario Public Advisory Number 20

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 220849
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Mario Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019

...MARIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 111.3W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mario
was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 111.3 West. Mario
is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is
expected later today or on Monday.  Mario is then forecast to
continue on that heading through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Mario is expected to become a remnant low later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Depression Mario Forecast Advisory Number 20

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 220849
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 111.3W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 111.3W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 111.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.4N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.7N 113.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.9N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 111.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Depression Mario Forecast Discussion Number 20

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 220851
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019

Mario continues to be a fully exposed swirl of low clouds devoid of
convection, and is close to becoming a remnant low.  The initial
intensity is reduced to 30 kt based on ASCAT data.  With no models
showing any significant re-development of deep convection, slow
weakening is forecast, and the cyclone should decay into a remnant
low later today.  The new intensity forecast is basically an update
of the previous one, adjusted for lower initial winds.

Mario is now moving a little faster with an initial motion of 335/8
kt.  The track guidance is in good agreement on a north-
northwestward at a slower pace through 48 hours.  The new forecast
track is very close to the previous one and the latest consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 21.0N 111.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 22.0N 112.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/0600Z 23.4N 113.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/1800Z 24.7N 113.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0600Z 25.9N 113.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Blake

Tropical Depression Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019                                              

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 220850
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019               
0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
25N 115W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Depression Mario Graphics

Tropical Depression Mario 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 08:50:21 GMT

Tropical Depression Mario 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 09:45:36 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression Lorena (EP5/EP152019)

...LORENA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND SOON AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN...
 As of 3:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 22
 the center of Lorena was located near 28.3, -111.5
 with movement N at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Lorena Public Advisory Number 20

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 220855
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lorena Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019

...LORENA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN MAINLAND
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND SOON AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 111.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM WNW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
warning for western mainland Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lorena
was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 111.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue during the next 12 to 24
hours. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to
cross the coast of mainland Mexico during the next few hours,
followed by a motion across northwestern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is likely before landfall. After landfall,
Lorena is expected to rapidly weaken, and the system is forecast to
dissipate over northwestern Mexico later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches over central Sonora, and additional rainfall of less
than one inch over Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall
may result in life-threatening flash floods in Sonora.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will continue to affect portions
of the western coast of Mexico today before subsiding on Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Depression Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 20

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019  

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 220854
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 111.5W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 111.5W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 111.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.7N 111.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 111.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Depression Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 20

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019  

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 220856
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Lorena Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019

Very little convection remains with Lorena, with only a small burst
near the center.  Strong southwesterly shear continues to weaken
Lorena, and ASCAT data indicate the maximum winds are down to 30
kt. All watches and warnings have been discontinued on this
advisory. Lorena is forecast to move northward across northwestern
Mexico later this morning and rapidly dissipate within 24 hours
over the high terrain. There are no significant changes to the track
or intensity forecasts.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena may produce dangerous flash flooding in Sonora today.
Moisture associated with Lorena may also result in locally heavy
rain over parts of Arizona early in the week. There is a slight Risk
of excessive rainfall over central Arizona on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 28.3N 111.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 29.7N 111.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Blake

Tropical Depression Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019                                              

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 220855
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019               
0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BAHIA KINO     34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Depression Lorena Graphics

Tropical Depression Lorena 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 08:55:42 GMT

Tropical Depression Lorena 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 09:52:00 GMT