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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 151150 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM PST Fri Nov 15 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-E, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A small area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the north of the low. Some gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next few days while the system moves westward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Summary for Tropical Storm Raymond (EP5/EP202019)
...TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND STRENGTHENING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC... As of 8:00 AM MST Fri Nov 15 the center of Raymond was located near 14.1, -108.8 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Raymond Public Advisory Number 3
Issued at 800 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 151443 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 800 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND STRENGTHENING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 108.8W ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Raymond. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 108.8 West. Raymond is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through today. A turn toward the north or north-northeast is forecast by late Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is anticipated during the next day or so. Weakening is forecast to occur by Sunday, and the system is predicted to degenerate into a remnant low by late Sunday or early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Advisory Number 3
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 151442 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019 1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 108.8W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 108.8W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 108.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.1N 109.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.4N 110.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.1N 110.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.2N 110.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 24.3N 110.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 108.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 3
Issued at 800 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 151445 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 800 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 The cyclone located several hundred miles south of the Baja California peninsula has continued to get better organized over the past few hours. The system is still sheared from the west, however, recent microwave and first-light visible imagery indicate that the center of the cyclone is better embedded within its convective canopy. Late-arriving ASCAT-C data early this morning had unflagged 35 kt peak winds and the overall structure of the cyclone appears to have improved since then. The initial intensity is therefore increased to 40 kt, and the system is now Tropical Storm Raymond. The largest source of uncertainty in Raymond's forecast is how its structure will evolve during the next 12 hours. ASCAT-C data showed that Raymond's circulation was still rather elongated overnight, however more recent microwave data indicate that the center may be reforming closer to the deep convection. If a new center is in fact consolidating to the east, Raymond should have an opportunity to strengthen today, but if the cyclone remains elongated, little intensification is likely. All of the typically-reliable dynamical intensity guidance shows at least slight strengthening, and the NHC forecast has been increased accordingly. Stronger upper-level winds are likely after that, so weakening is still expected before Raymond nears the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday, and it is forecast to become a remnant low around that time. Raymond is moving north-northwestward and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north or north-northeast is likely on Saturday as Raymond moves between a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough located off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. There has been little change in the track guidance since the last forecast and the new NHC forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory. It is worth noting that if Raymond's center reforms to the east, as shown by the HWRF, HMON, and GFS models, an adjustment in that direction will likely be required to the track forecast, while a broader system will more likely move farther west. Rainfall from this system is forecast to spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 14.1N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 15.1N 109.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 16.4N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 18.1N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 20.2N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 24.3N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Raymond Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019
000
FOPZ15 KNHC 151443
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 18(21) X(21) X(21)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 110W 34 42 16(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
15N 110W 50 4 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 31(42) 4(46) X(46) X(46)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 6( 7) 28(35) 13(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Raymond Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2019 14:46:28 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2019 15:24:19 GMT