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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

360 
ABPZ20 KNHC 062324
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Bonnie, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of 
the Baja California peninsula. 

Offshore of Southeastern Mexico:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the 
southeastern coast of Mexico is producing an area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected 
to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast 
of Mexico over the weekend while the disturbance moves generally 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

Summary for Hurricane Bonnie (EP4/EP042022)

...BONNIE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
 As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Jul 6
 the center of Bonnie was located near 16.5, -110.1
 with movement WNW at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 972 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Hurricane Bonnie Public Advisory Number 37

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022  

663 
WTPZ34 KNHC 062037
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
300 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022
 
...BONNIE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 110.1W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 110.1 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A westward to
west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Weakening is forecast to commence later tonight, and 
continue through Saturday.  Bonnie is expected to become a 
post-tropical cyclone in a few days.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Bonnie will continue to affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Bonnie Forecast Advisory Number 37

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 06 2022  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 062036
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042022
2100 UTC WED JUL 06 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 110.1W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 110.1W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 109.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.9N 111.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.6N 114.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.8N 120.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.3N 124.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.6N 128.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 19.8N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 110.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Hurricane Bonnie Forecast Discussion Number 37

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 062037
TCDEP4
 
Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
300 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022
 
The satellite presentation of Bonnie has not changed much since
this morning.  At times, the small eye has become a little more
distinct and warmer in infrared satellite pictures, but then
becomes cloud filled.  This has led to a waffling of subjective
Dvorak estimates between about T4.5 and T5.0 depending on the
infrared eye temperature of each picture.  Objective numbers
remain lower, but have increased somewhat today.  The initial
intensity is maintained at 90 kt, and is based on the latest
SAB Dvorak classification.  Recent scatterometer data have helped
confirm the 34- and 50-kt wind radii.
 
Bonnie will be moving over gradually decreasing sea surface
temperatures later tonight and into a drier and more stable
environment which is likely to begin the weakening process.
After that time, a faster rate of filling is forecast as Bonnie
moves over sub 26C sea surface temperatures.  The cyclone is
forecast to become post-tropical in about 72 hours, and dissipate
by the end of the 5-day forecast period. The updated NHC intensity
forecast is closest to the lower LGEM guidance.
 
Bonnie is moving on a motion between west and west-northwest at
about 10 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the north of the system should
continue to steer the cyclone westward to west-northwestward during
the next couple of days.  A faster and more westward motion is
likely by 72 hours as Bonnie weakens and is steered by the low level
trade wind flow.  The new forecast is essentially an update of the
previous advisory and it lies closest to a blend of the latest 
GFS and ECMWF tracks.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 16.5N 110.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 16.9N 111.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 17.6N 114.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 18.8N 120.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 19.3N 124.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 19.6N 128.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  10/1800Z 19.8N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Bonnie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 06 2022                                              

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 062037
PWSEP4
                                                                    
HURRICANE BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  37                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042022               
2100 UTC WED JUL 06 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 110W       34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 110W       34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  2  71(73)  12(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
ISLA CLARION   50  X  22(22)  12(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
15N 115W       34  2   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
20N 115W       34  2   5( 7)   5(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
15N 120W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  30(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  30(32)   X(32)   X(32)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)   X(15)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN

Hurricane Bonnie Graphics

Hurricane Bonnie 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Jul 2022 20:39:40 GMT

Hurricane Bonnie 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Jul 2022 21:23:04 GMT