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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
349 ABPZ20 KNHC 112324 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sat Jul 11 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Although upper-level winds are currently only marginally conducive for the development of a tropical cyclone, environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for the formation of a tropical depression in two or three days while the system moves quickly west-northwestward to westward, well south of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
...CRISTINA MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... As of 5:00 PM HST Sat Jul 11 the center of Cristina was located near 20.6, -122.2 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 22
Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 120232 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 500 PM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 ...CRISTINA MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 122.2W ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 122.2 West. Cristina is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Cristina should steadily weaken over the next few days and become a remnant low by early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 22
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 120232 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 122.2W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 122.2W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 121.6W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.8N 124.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.2N 126.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.6N 128.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.0N 131.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.4N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.9N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 23.5N 141.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 122.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 22
Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 500 PM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 Cristina continues to maintain a broken ring of convection around its center, and there has been little change in either the organization or the various satellite intensity estimates since the last advisory. Based on that, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt. The initial motion is westward or 270/12. The track forecast guidance remains in excellent agreement that Cristina should continue generally westward through the forecast period on the south side of the subtropical ridge. Only minor adjustments have been made to the previous forecast track, and the new forecast is in the middle of the tightly clustered guidance. The cyclone is over sea surface temperatures near 23C, and the temperatures cool along the forecast track for the next 60 h or so. This should cause Cristina to weaken to a depression in about 48 h and degenerate to a remnant low shortly thereafter. The latest global models forecast the remnant low to weaken to a trough between 96-120 h, and the NHC forecast thus shows dissipation by 120 h. The new intensity forecast is otherwise unchanged from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 20.6N 122.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 20.8N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 21.2N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 21.6N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 22.0N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 22.4N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0000Z 22.9N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0000Z 23.5N 141.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020
000
FOPZ15 KNHC 120234
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
0300 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 125W 34 14 14(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2020 02:38:13 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2020 03:24:44 GMT