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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

349 
ABPZ20 KNHC 112324
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jul 11 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles 
south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized 
shower and thunderstorm activity.  Although upper-level winds are 
currently only marginally conducive for the development of a 
tropical cyclone, environmental conditions are expected to become 
more favorable for the formation of a tropical depression in two or 
three days while the system moves quickly west-northwestward to 
westward, well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)

...CRISTINA MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
 As of 5:00 PM HST Sat Jul 11
 the center of Cristina was located near 20.6, -122.2
 with movement W at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 999 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 22

Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Jul 11 2020  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 120232
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
500 PM HST Sat Jul 11 2020
 
...CRISTINA MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 122.2W
ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 122.2 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion 
is expected to continue for the remainder of the weekend and into 
early next week.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Cristina should steadily weaken over the next few days and become 
a remnant low by early next week.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 22

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020  

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 120232
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052020
0300 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 122.2W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 122.2W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 121.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.8N 124.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.2N 126.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.6N 128.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.0N 131.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.4N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.9N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 23.5N 141.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 122.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 22

Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Jul 11 2020  
ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
500 PM HST Sat Jul 11 2020

Cristina continues to maintain a broken ring of convection around 
its center, and there has been little change in either the 
organization or the various satellite intensity estimates since the 
last advisory.  Based on that, the initial intensity is held at 50 
kt.

The initial motion is westward or 270/12.  The track forecast 
guidance remains in excellent agreement that Cristina should 
continue generally westward through the forecast period on the south 
side of the subtropical ridge.  Only minor adjustments have been 
made to the previous forecast track, and the new forecast is in the 
middle of the tightly clustered guidance.

The cyclone is over sea surface temperatures near 23C, and the 
temperatures cool along the forecast track for the next 60 h or so. 
This should cause Cristina to weaken to a depression in about 48 h 
and degenerate to a remnant low shortly thereafter.  The latest 
global models forecast the remnant low to weaken to a trough between 
96-120 h, and the NHC forecast thus shows dissipation by 120 h.  The 
new intensity forecast is otherwise unchanged from the previous 
forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0300Z 20.6N 122.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 20.8N 124.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 21.2N 126.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 21.6N 128.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 22.0N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  14/1200Z 22.4N 133.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/0000Z 22.9N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/0000Z 23.5N 141.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
NNNN

Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020                                              

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 120234
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052020               
0300 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 125W       34 14  14(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
20N 130W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
25N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics

Tropical Storm Cristina 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2020 02:38:13 GMT

Tropical Storm Cristina 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2020 03:24:44 GMT