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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
360 ABPZ20 KNHC 062324 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Bonnie, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Offshore of Southeastern Mexico: A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the southeastern coast of Mexico is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend while the disturbance moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
Summary for Hurricane Bonnie (EP4/EP042022)
...BONNIE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 the center of Bonnie was located near 16.5, -110.1 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Hurricane Bonnie Public Advisory Number 37
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022 663 WTPZ34 KNHC 062037 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 300 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022 ...BONNIE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 110.1W ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 110.1 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to commence later tonight, and continue through Saturday. Bonnie is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in a few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Hurricane Bonnie Forecast Advisory Number 37
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 06 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 062036 TCMEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 2100 UTC WED JUL 06 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 110.1W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 110.1W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 109.5W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.9N 111.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.6N 114.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.8N 120.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.3N 124.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.6N 128.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 19.8N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 110.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Hurricane Bonnie Forecast Discussion Number 37
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 062037 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 300 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022 The satellite presentation of Bonnie has not changed much since this morning. At times, the small eye has become a little more distinct and warmer in infrared satellite pictures, but then becomes cloud filled. This has led to a waffling of subjective Dvorak estimates between about T4.5 and T5.0 depending on the infrared eye temperature of each picture. Objective numbers remain lower, but have increased somewhat today. The initial intensity is maintained at 90 kt, and is based on the latest SAB Dvorak classification. Recent scatterometer data have helped confirm the 34- and 50-kt wind radii. Bonnie will be moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures later tonight and into a drier and more stable environment which is likely to begin the weakening process. After that time, a faster rate of filling is forecast as Bonnie moves over sub 26C sea surface temperatures. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical in about 72 hours, and dissipate by the end of the 5-day forecast period. The updated NHC intensity forecast is closest to the lower LGEM guidance. Bonnie is moving on a motion between west and west-northwest at about 10 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the system should continue to steer the cyclone westward to west-northwestward during the next couple of days. A faster and more westward motion is likely by 72 hours as Bonnie weakens and is steered by the low level trade wind flow. The new forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory and it lies closest to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 16.5N 110.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 16.9N 111.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 17.6N 114.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 18.8N 120.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 19.3N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 19.6N 128.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 10/1800Z 19.8N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Hurricane Bonnie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 06 2022
000
FOPZ14 KNHC 062037
PWSEP4
HURRICANE BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
2100 UTC WED JUL 06 2022
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 110W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 110W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ISLA CLARION 34 2 71(73) 12(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
ISLA CLARION 50 X 22(22) 12(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
ISLA CLARION 64 X 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
15N 115W 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
20N 115W 34 2 5( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
15N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 120W 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 30(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38)
20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) X(32) X(32)
20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15)
20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Hurricane Bonnie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Jul 2022 20:39:40 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Jul 2022 21:23:04 GMT