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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151150
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM PST Fri Nov 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Twenty-E, located several hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A small area of low pressure located several hundred miles south
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, mainly to the north of the low. Some gradual
development of this disturbance is possible during the next few
days while the system moves westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Summary for Tropical Storm Raymond (EP5/EP202019)

...TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND STRENGTHENING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...
 As of 8:00 AM MST Fri Nov 15
 the center of Raymond was located near 14.1, -108.8
 with movement NNW at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Raymond Public Advisory Number 3

Issued at 800 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 151443
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202019
800 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019

...TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND STRENGTHENING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 108.8W
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Raymond.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 108.8 West. Raymond is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected
through today. A turn toward the north or north-northeast is
forecast by late Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is anticipated
during the next day or so. Weakening is forecast to occur by
Sunday, and the system is predicted to degenerate into a remnant
low by late Sunday or early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the southern portions of
Baja California Sur. This rainfall could produce life-threatening
flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019  

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 151442
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202019
1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 108.8W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 108.8W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 108.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.1N 109.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.4N 110.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.1N 110.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.2N 110.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 24.3N 110.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 108.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 800 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019  

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 151445
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202019
800 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019

The cyclone located several hundred miles south of the Baja
California peninsula has continued to get better organized over the
past few hours. The system is still sheared from the west, however,
recent microwave and first-light visible imagery indicate that the
center of the cyclone is better embedded within its convective
canopy. Late-arriving ASCAT-C data early this morning had unflagged
35 kt peak winds and the overall structure of the cyclone appears
to have improved since then. The initial intensity is therefore
increased to 40 kt, and the system is now Tropical Storm Raymond.

The largest source of uncertainty in Raymond's forecast is how its
structure will evolve during the next 12 hours. ASCAT-C data showed
that Raymond's circulation was still rather elongated overnight,
however more recent microwave data indicate that the center may be
reforming closer to the deep convection. If a new center is in fact
consolidating to the east, Raymond should have an opportunity to
strengthen today, but if the cyclone remains elongated, little
intensification is likely. All of the typically-reliable dynamical
intensity guidance shows at least slight strengthening, and the NHC
forecast has been increased accordingly. Stronger upper-level winds
are likely after that, so weakening is still expected before Raymond
nears the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday, and
it is forecast to become a remnant low around that time.

Raymond is moving north-northwestward and this general motion is
forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north or
north-northeast is likely on Saturday as Raymond moves between a
mid-level ridge centered over Mexico and a mid- to upper-level
trough located off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula.
There has been little change in the track guidance since the last
forecast and the new NHC forecast is essentially just an update of
the previous advisory. It is worth noting that if Raymond's center
reforms to the east, as shown by the HWRF, HMON, and GFS models, an
adjustment in that direction will likely be required to the track
forecast, while a broader system will more likely move farther west.

Rainfall from this system is forecast to spread northward into
southern portions of the Baja California peninsula during the next
few days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 14.1N 108.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 15.1N 109.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 16.4N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 18.1N 110.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 20.2N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 24.3N 110.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Raymond Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019                                              

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 151443
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202019               
1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  18(21)   X(21)   X(21)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 110W       34 42  16(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
15N 110W       50  4   9(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
20N 110W       34  X   3( 3)   8(11)  31(42)   4(46)   X(46)   X(46)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  1   6( 7)  28(35)  13(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tropical Storm Raymond Graphics

Tropical Storm Raymond 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2019 14:46:28 GMT

Tropical Storm Raymond 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2019 15:24:19 GMT