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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 090557
TWOEP 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat May 8 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued for an area of disturbed 
weather southwest of Mexico.

Satellite images and recent satellite-derived surface wind data 
indicate that the low pressure system located several hundred miles 
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico has become better defined 
over the past several hours. Environmental conditions are conducive 
for further development, and only a slight increase in organization 
will result in advisories being issued on a short-lived tropical 
depression or tropical storm later this morning.  By Monday, 
environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable as 
the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward away from 
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be 
issued by 8 AM PDT today, or earlier if conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Tropical Depression One-E (EP1/EP012021)

...FIRST 2021 EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...
 As of 3:00 AM MDT Sun May 9
 the center of One-E was located near 13.8, -107.7
 with movement NW at 5 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression One-E Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021  

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 090833
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012021
300 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021
 
...FIRST 2021 EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 107.7W
ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM SSE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical 
Depression One-E was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 
107.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph 
(7 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through 
Monday. The cyclone is forecast to turn westward on Tuesday, and 
move west-southwestward on Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, 
and the system could become a tropical storm later today. Gradual 
weakening is expected to begin on Monday, with the system becoming 
a remnant on Tuesday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021  

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 090832
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012021
0900 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 107.7W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 107.7W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 107.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.5N 108.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.3N 108.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.8N 109.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.1N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.2N 110.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.2N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 15.8N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 107.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021  

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 090857
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012021
300 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021

Satellite images and scatterometer surface wind data indicate that 
the low pressure area southwest of Mexico that the NHC has been 
monitoring for the past few days has acquired sufficient organized 
deep convection and has developed a well-defined inner-core wind 
field for the system to be designated as the first tropical 
depression of the 2021 Eastern North Pacific hurricane season... 
albeit six days early. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on 
30-kt surface winds noted in 0359 UTC and 0453 UTC ASCAT-B and 
ASCAT-C, respectively, scatterometer satellite data. There were some 
35-kt wind vectors present east of the center, but those appeared to 
be rain-contaminated at that time. The 30-kt initial intensity is 
also supported by a 0600 UTC TAFB satellite intensity estimate of 
T2.0/30 kt using a curved-band feature.

The initial motion estimate is 325/04 kt. For the next day or two, 
the tropical cyclone is forecast to move northwestward to 
north-northwestward around the western periphery of a weak 
subtropical ridge that extends westward from the southwestern Gulf 
of Mexico across central Mexico to just north of the system. The 
ridge is expected to build steadily westward over the next few 
days, resulting in the cyclone turning westward on Tuesday and then 
moving west-southwestward on Wednesday and Thursday. The HHC track 
forecast follows the overall trend of the consensus models TVCE 
and HCCA, but lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope 
in anticipation of the system weakening and becoming a shallow 
cyclone by early Tuesday, after which it should be steered more by 
the low-level easterly to northeasterly trade-wind flow

Recent satellite trends suggest that the depression currently is not 
far from tropical storm status, and SHIPS intensity data indicate 
that the deep-layer shear is favorable for some additional 
strengthening. However, shear analyses from UW-CIMSS reveal that 
moderate southwesterly to westerly mid-level shear is currently 
displacing the convection to the northeast and east of the  
low-level center, and this unfavorable pattern is expected to hinder 
overall development. As a result, the cyclone is only forecast to 
become a low-end tropical storm before significant deep-layer shear 
begins to adversely affect the system by late Monday. During the 
period Tuesday through Thursday, very hostile wind shear in 
conjunction with sea-surface temperatures cooling to near 26-deg C 
beneath the cyclone should result in the system degenerating into a 
remnant low, with dissipation expected by early Friday, if not 
sooner. The official intensity forecast is similar to but slightly 
higher than the consensus models IVCN and HCCA for the next 24 
hours, and then closely follows those models thereafter.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 13.8N 107.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 14.5N 108.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 15.3N 108.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 15.8N 109.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 16.1N 110.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  11/1800Z 16.2N 110.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0600Z 16.2N 112.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/0600Z 15.8N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Depression One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021                                              

000
FOPZ11 KNHC 090833
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012021               
0900 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 110W       34  1   7( 8)   5(13)   2(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Depression One-E Graphics

Tropical Depression One-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 May 2021 08:35:06 GMT

Tropical Depression One-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 May 2021 09:22:44 GMT