Tropical Sea Temperatures

Tropical

Current US IR Satellite Loop

Satellite loop from WeatherUnderground

 

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 262325
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Philippe, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in 
association with an area of low pressure located roughly halfway 
between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression or storm is expected to form 
in the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward 
across the central tropical Atlantic. Additional information on this 
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin

Summary for Tropical Storm Philippe (AT2/AL172023)

...PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
 As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 26
 the center of Philippe was located near 17.4, -52.0
 with movement W at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 15

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 26 2023  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 270236
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 26 2023
 
...PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 52.0W
ABOUT 730 MI...1180 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 52.0 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a westward
to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.
 
Satellite wind data indicates that maximum sustained winds remain 
near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is 
forecast over the next several days. 
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Advisory Number 15

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 27 2023  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 270236
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023
0300 UTC WED SEP 27 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  52.0W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 170SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 120SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  52.0W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  51.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.9N  53.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...170NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.8N  55.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.4N  56.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.8N  58.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.0N  59.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.0N  61.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 20.1N  64.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 20.2N  67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N  52.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 15

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 26 2023  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 270240
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 26 2023
 
After the previous advisory, there was a convective burst with cloud 
tops as cold as -80C that formed near the circulation center. More 
recently, this burst has been waning in intensity, and it would not 
be surprising to see the vortex become exposed again shortly as 
20-30 kt southwesterly vertical wind shear continues. While 
subjective and objective intensity estimates continue to suggest a 
weaker storm, a helpful 0015 UTC ASCAT-B pass still showed a large 
region of 35-40 kt winds in the northeastern side of the 
circulation, in fact requiring an expansion of the tropical storm 
force winds in that quadrant. Based primarily on the scatterometer 
data, Philippe's intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory.
 
The intensity forecast appears rather straightforward. The current
vertical wind shear over Philippe is expected to continue through
most of the forecast period, helping to import drier air into the
circulation, that should prevent additional convective bursts from
organizing the system. By 72 hours, both the GFS and ECMWF are in
agreement that Philippe should no longer have organized deep
convection, which is when the forecast shows the system becoming a
post-tropical remnant low. As mentioned previously, this could
happen sooner than forecasted given the unfavorable environment.
 
After moving south of due west earlier today, Philippe appears to
have resumed a north of due west heading, estimated at 280/10 kt.
The track guidance is in good agreement on this motion continuing
with a bend westward in 36-48 hours as the cyclone becomes 
primarily steered by the low-level flow. The latest NHC track 
forecast remains along or just south of the model guidance consensus 
aids, and is between the GFS and ECMWF solutions. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 17.4N  52.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 17.9N  53.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 18.8N  55.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 19.4N  56.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 19.8N  58.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  29/1200Z 20.0N  59.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 20.0N  61.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0000Z 20.1N  64.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0000Z 20.2N  67.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Tropical Storm Philippe Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 27 2023                                              

000
FONT12 KNHC 270236
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023               
0300 UTC WED SEP 27 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAINT JOHN     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
SABA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN

Tropical Storm Philippe Graphics

Tropical Storm Philippe 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Sep 2023 02:37:21 GMT

Tropical Storm Philippe 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Sep 2023 03:22:53 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 262323
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 26 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Southwestern East Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated in 
association with a tropical wave located well southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Further development
of this system is possible over the next few days while it moves 
generally westward at about 15 mph. By this weekend, upper-level 
winds are forecast to become unfavorable for further development 
before the system moves into the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 27 Sep 2023 03:23:04 GMT