Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121127
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 12 Sep 2026 14:15:32 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121130
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Sep 12 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Norbert, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of 
the Baja California Peninsula.

Central and Western East Pacific (EP97):
Earlier satellite-derived winds indicate that the surface 
circulation associated with an area of low pressure located 
several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico 
remains poorly defined.  Environmental conditions still appear 
conducive for development, however, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form during the next couple of days while it moves 
generally west-northwestward to westward over the central and 
western portions of the eastern Pacific basin.  For more 
information, including gale warnings, please see the High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Development of this system is becoming less likely 
while it drifts generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Summary for Tropical Storm Norbert (EP4/EP142026)

...NORBERT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... As of 11:00 PM HST Fri Sep 11 the center of Norbert was located near 17.1, -127.4 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 11

Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 11 2026 000
WTPZ34 KNHC 120849
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026
1100 PM HST Fri Sep 11 2026
 
...NORBERT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 127.4W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1820 MI...2930 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 127.4 West. Norbert is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Norbert is forecast to approach hurricane intensity by this weekend.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs

Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 11

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2026 000
WTPZ24 KNHC 120849
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142026
0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 127.4W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  20SE  20SW  60NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE  60SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 127.4W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 127.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.4N 128.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.8N 130.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.1N 132.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.4N 134.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.4N 137.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.3N 139.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 17.4N 144.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 15.6N 148.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 127.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS

Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 11

Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 11 2026 000
WTPZ44 KNHC 120849
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026
1100 PM HST Fri Sep 11 2026
 
Deep convection associated with an earlier well-established curved 
band has deteriorated over the past several hours, likely due to 
some mid-level dry air entrainment. A 0442 UTC scatterometer pass 
indicated peak winds just above 40 kt within the northwest quadrant. 
Additionally, the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from 
TAFB is T3.0/45 kt, with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranging 
from 45 to 50 kt. Given these data and the degraded convective 
structure, the initial intensity is lowered to a generous 50 kt.

The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt. The track 
guidance has come into much better agreement this cycle and shows 
Norbert continuing generally westward through the weekend as a low- 
to mid-level subtropical ridge remains north of the cyclone. A 
gradual turn toward the west-southwest is then forecast during the 
early to middle portion of next week. Despite the improved agreement 
among the track guidance this cycle, there has been considerable 
run-to-run variability, and confidence in the forecast beyond the 
weekend remains lower than normal. The NHC track forecast is largely 
an update of the previous advisory and lies close to the multi-model 
consensus (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.

Environmental conditions remain favorable for some strengthening 
over the weekend, and Norbert is forecast to approach hurricane 
intensity by 24 to 36 h. Thereafter, a gradual weakening trend is 
forecast through the remainder of the period, likely due to a 
combination of mid-level dry air entrainment and weakening 
upper-level divergence. Simulated satellite imagery from both the 
GFS and ECMWF broadly support this and depict Norbert struggling to 
maintain organized deep convection as it moves westward to 
west-southwestward next week. The latest NHC intensity forecast has 
been lowered slightly from the previous advisory. It remains above 
the intensity guidance envelope through the weekend, then trends 
toward the middle to upper end of the guidance next week. 

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0900Z 17.1N 127.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 17.4N 128.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 17.8N 130.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 18.1N 132.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 18.4N 134.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  14/1800Z 18.4N 137.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  15/0600Z 18.3N 139.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  16/0600Z 17.4N 144.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  17/0600Z 15.6N 148.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs

Tropical Storm Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2026 000
FOPZ14 KNHC 120849
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142026               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   X(10)
 
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
15N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)
15N 150W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS

Tropical Storm Norbert Graphics

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2026 09:22:58 GMT