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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 040523
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 04 Sep 2026 07:40:05 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 040538
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 3 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Karina, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands, on Hurricane
Lowell, located several hundred miles south of the Hawaiian Islands,
and on Hurricane Marie, located several hundred miles west-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern
Mexico early next week. Gradual development is possible, and the
system could become a tropical depression around the middle of next
week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, likely
remaining well offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Summary for Hurricane Karina (EP1/EP112026)

...KARINA REMAINS STEADY BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM HST Thu Sep 03 the center of Karina was located near 20.1, -138.4 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Hurricane Karina Public Advisory Number 31

Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Sep 03 2026 000
WTPZ31 KNHC 040245
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Karina Advisory Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
500 PM HST Thu Sep 03 2026
 
...KARINA REMAINS STEADY BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 138.4W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was located
near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 138.4 West. Karina is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
although Karina is expected to remain a hurricane during the next
day or two.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Hagen

Hurricane Karina Forecast Advisory Number 31

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026 000
WTPZ21 KNHC 040244
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112026
0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 138.4W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT.......120NE  80SE  90SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 150SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 138.4W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 138.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.4N 139.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 65NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.9N 141.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.5N 142.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  70SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.2N 143.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.9N 144.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.6N 146.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 24.9N 150.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 138.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/HAGEN

Hurricane Karina Forecast Discussion Number 31

Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Sep 03 2026 000
WTPZ41 KNHC 040246
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Karina Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
500 PM HST Thu Sep 03 2026
 
Karina continues to chug along as a strong hurricane, with a
well-established eye, despite dry air intrusion beginning to wrap
into the system. The latest subjective Dvorak analysis from TAFB
remains unchanged at a T5.0/90 kt, which compliments the objective
estimates from UW-CIMSS ranging from 87-90 kt. Given the above, the
initial intensity estimate remains unaltered at 90 kt.
 
The hurricane's initial motion has shifted northerly, now heading 
west-northwestward at 285/9 kt. Ridging to the north of the system 
has become eroded by an upper-level trough, which is expected to 
cause a turn to the northwest later this evening. The latest NHC 
forecast closely follows the Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean, and is 
quite similar to the previous forecast. In about 3 days, Karina's 
proximity to Hurricane Lowell may also help induce a turn back 
toward the west-northwest. Despite this more westward turn, Karina 
is not expected to be a threat to the Hawaiian Islands.

The latest SHIPS guidance depicts Karina will begin moving into an
unfavorable environment over the next 12-24 h, showing an increase
in vertical wind shear, cooling SSTs, and a steady desiccation.
These factors will cause Karina to weaken over the weekend, with the
forecast calling for the system to become post-tropical by Monday
and dissipating shortly thereafter. The official NHC intensity
forecast was largely unchanged from the previous advisory, aligning
closely with the consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 20.1N 138.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 20.4N 139.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 20.9N 141.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 21.5N 142.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 22.2N 143.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  06/1200Z 22.9N 144.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 23.6N 146.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 24.9N 150.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Hagen

Hurricane Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026 000
FOPZ11 KNHC 040245
PWSEP1
                                                                    
HURRICANE KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  31                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112026               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 140W       34 98   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
20N 140W       50 49  12(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
20N 140W       64 16  11(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
25N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  20(24)   1(25)   X(25)
25N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
25N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   X(20)
25N 150W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PIERCE/HAGEN

Hurricane Karina Graphics



Hurricane Karina 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2026 03:21:58 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP132026)

...MARIE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 03 the center of Marie was located near 19.6, -116.3 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 12

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 03 2026 444 
WTPZ33 KNHC 040255
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 03 2026
 
...MARIE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 116.3W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 116.3 West. Marie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through the weekend.
 
Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight
additional strengthening is possible tonight. Gradual weakening is
expected to begin by Saturday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for
the next few days and are expected to spread northward to Southern
California Friday through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip
current risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 12

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026 263 
WTPZ23 KNHC 040255
TCMEP3
 
HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132026
0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 116.3W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  30SE  10SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....330NE 210SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 116.3W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 115.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  20SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 118.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  35SE  20SW  45NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  35SE  20SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.2N 121.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.9N 121.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.5N 123.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 24.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW 110NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 26.4N 128.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  90NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 116.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN

Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 12

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 03 2026 492 
WTPZ43 KNHC 040256
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 03 2026
 
The convective state of Marie has improved slightly over the past 6 
hours, with less evidence of the dry slotting that was observed 
earlier.  The center is embedded underneath the large convective 
canopy.  A recent SSMIS pass was helpful in estimating the center 
position.  The latest TAFB estimate remains T4.5/77 kt while the 
objective intensity estimates have increased slightly to the 80-87 
kt range.  The initial intensity is raised to 85 kt as the satellite 
presentation has improved since the time of the TAFB Dvorak fix.
 
The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 295/8 kt.  A 
slightly slower motion in the same direction is expected over the 
next few days as Marie moves closer to a mid-level ridge located to 
its north.  In about 4 days, a mid- to upper-level trough 
approaching the west coast of the United States may induce a gradual 
turn toward the northwest.  Some of the model guidance has shifted 
to the right in the long-range forecast over the past couple of 
cycles, and the NHC forecast is shifted accordingly to the right 
(north) of the previous track at days 3-5.  The NHC forecast is just 
a bit to the southwest of the latest HCCA and GDMI models at those 
time ranges.  It should be noted that the spread in the track 
guidance remains large at days 4 and 5, and confidence in the track 
forecast is below average at those time ranges.
 
The vertical wind shear is expected to remain low along Marie's path 
for the next 4 days.  Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and 
atmospheric moisture will still remain favorable enough for some 
slight additional intensification to be possible through tonight. 
Thereafter, SSTs and moisture will gradually decrease along Marie's 
track for the remainder of the forecast period.  This will lead to 
gradual weakening beginning on Saturday.  Very little change was 
made to the first 2 days of the intensity forecast, during which 
time the forecast is near the higher end of the intensity guidance. 
A slightly faster rate of weakening is shown at days 4 and 5, and 
this portion of the forecast lies closer to the middle of the 
guidance envelope.  The NHC forecast shows the cyclone still hanging 
onto tropical storm status at day 5 as it remains well offshore of 
the Baja California Peninsula.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 19.6N 116.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 20.7N 118.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 21.5N 120.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 22.2N 121.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  06/1200Z 22.9N 121.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 23.5N 123.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 24.5N 126.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 26.4N 128.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026 324 
FOPZ13 KNHC 040255
PWSEP3
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132026               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
20N 115W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
20N 115W       50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
20N 120W       34 11  55(66)   7(73)   X(73)   1(74)   X(74)   X(74)
20N 120W       50  X   8( 8)   8(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
20N 120W       64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
25N 120W       34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  10(17)   7(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)  29(51)   2(53)
25N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)   1(20)
25N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)
 
30N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN

Hurricane Marie Graphics



Hurricane Marie 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2026 03:33:06 GMT