Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 142307
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Windward Islands (AL92):
A tropical wave near the Windward Islands is producing gusty winds 
and a large area of showers and thunderstorms.  This system is 
moving into a region of increasing upper-level winds and drier air, 
and the potential for tropical cyclone formation has decreased.  
Even though development is highly unlikely, strong gusty winds to 
near gale force and areas of heavy rain are possible across portions 
of the Lesser Antilles tonight and on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A tropical wave over the Central Tropical Atlantic, located more 
than 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to produce 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  While environmental 
conditions are conducive for some development over the next few 
days, the system is expected to encounter strong upper-level winds 
next week, decreasing its chances for development. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Mahoney

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 15 Aug 2026 05:07:22 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 142307
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Lala, located several hundred miles east-southeast of Hilo, 
Hawaii. 

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on 
Tropical Depression Hernan, located well west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

South of Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south of 
the coast of southern Mexico by the early to middle part of next 
week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter 
while the system moves westward or west-northwestward well south of 
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula by the early to middle 
part of next week. Gradual development of this system is possible 
thereafter while it moves generally westward across the western 
portion of the east Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Pasch

Summary for Tropical Depression Hernan (EP3/EP082026)

...CENTER OF HERNAN REFORMS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH... As of 5:00 PM HST Fri Aug 14 the center of Hernan was located near 16.2, -132.9 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Hernan Public Advisory Number 9

Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Aug 14 2026 115 
WTPZ33 KNHC 150233
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Hernan Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082026
500 PM HST Fri Aug 14 2026
 
...CENTER OF HERNAN REFORMS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 132.9W
ABOUT 1565 MI...2515 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Hernan 
was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 132.9 West. The 
depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this 
motion is expected to continue through early next week. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hernan is 
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within the next day or 
so.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Pasch

Tropical Depression Hernan Forecast Advisory Number 9

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2026 116 
WTPZ23 KNHC 150233
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082026
0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2026
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 132.9W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 132.9W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 132.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.3N 134.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.4N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.5N 138.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.6N 140.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.7N 142.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 132.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER MAHONEY/PASCH

Tropical Depression Hernan Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Aug 14 2026 379 
WTPZ43 KNHC 150235
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Hernan Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082026
500 PM HST Fri Aug 14 2026

The center of Tropical Depression Hernan has reformed since the 
previous advisory, with the system now initialized about 30 mi 
north of the previous track. The center reformation is evident on 
geostationary visible satellite imagery and supported by a recent 
Oceansat-3 scatterometer pass. This also positions Hernan closer 
to its active convection, which is limited to a small area in the 
northeast quadrant. Based on the subjective and objective satellite 
classifications, and the aforementioned scatterometer pass which 
sampled the northwestern quadrant, the initial intensity remains at 
30 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is an uncertain 275/12 kt, and based primarily 
on visible satellite imagery over the past 4 to 6 h. This generally 
westward motion is expected to continue through the forecast period 
as the cyclone is steered by a deep-layer ridge to the north. Due to 
the center reformation, the new track forecast lies about 30 mi 
north of the previous forecast, and closely follows the HCCA and 
TVCN consensus aids. Moderate vertical wind shear and dry air are 
expected to continue to affect Hernan and lead to the system 
degenerating into a post-tropical cyclone by 24 h. The remnant low 
is forecast to continue westward for a few more days thereafter, 
before dissipating by 72 h. This is in agreement with the
deterministic global model guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 16.2N 132.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 16.3N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 16.4N 136.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1200Z 16.5N 138.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/0000Z 16.6N 140.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  17/1200Z 16.7N 142.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Pasch

Tropical Depression Hernan Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2026 000
FOPZ13 KNHC 150234
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082026               
0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAHONEY/PASCH

Tropical Depression Hernan Graphics

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2026 03:28:29 GMT