Tropical Sea Temperatures
Current US IR Satellite Loop
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
508
ABNT20 KNHC 181728
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Off the East Coast of the United States:
A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is expected to form
later today or tonight off the southeast coast of the United States.
This low is likely to move slowly and erratically through the middle
of this week, and some subtropical development is possible during
that time. Regardless of development, this system will cause high
winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf along portions of the
U.S. East Coast. Please consult statements and warnings from local
National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center
for more information, along with High Seas Forecasts and Storm
Warnings issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Beven
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 18 Oct 2026 22:02:38 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181734
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 18 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Trudy, located offshore of southwestern Mexico.
South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of
southern Mexico during the next day or two. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and
a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle of this
week while it moves westward to west-northwestward, well south of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Adams
Summary for Hurricane Trudy (EP1/EP212026)
...TRUDY EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT... ...ALL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO AND THE ISLAS MARIAS... As of 2:00 PM MST Sun Oct 18 the center of Trudy was located near 19.5, -107.0 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
Hurricane Trudy Public Advisory Number 22
Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Oct 18 2026 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 182041 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Trudy Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 200 PM MST Sun Oct 18 2026 ...TRUDY EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT... ...ALL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO AND THE ISLAS MARIAS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 107.0W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings for the coast of Mexico and Las Islas Marias. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect. Interests in southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as Baja California Sur should continue to monitor the progress of Trudy. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Trudy was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 107.0 West. Trudy is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest tonight is expected tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy will move away from the coast of mainland Mexico this afternoon and tonight, then move south of Baja California Sur on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have weakened to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to begin tonight, and Trudy could degenerate to a post-tropical low by Tuesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Trudy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible this afternoon and this evening over portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and Las Islas Marias. RAINFALL: Through tonight, Trudy is expected to produce an additional 1 to 4 inches of rain along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Jalisco. This rainfall may produce localized flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Trudy, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge should subside along the coast of Mexico this afternoon and tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next two to three days. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Trudy Forecast Advisory Number 22
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 18 2026 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 182040 TCMEP1 HURRICANE TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026 2100 UTC SUN OCT 18 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 107.0W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 107.0W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 106.9W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.9N 107.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.1N 108.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.3N 108.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.4N 109.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.9N 110.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 107.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 22
Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Oct 18 2026 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 182042 TCDEP1 Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 200 PM MST Sun Oct 18 2026 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Trudy this afternoon found maximum 700 mb flight-level winds of 95 kt in the northeast eyewall, with a dropsonde in that area suggesting surface winds of about 85 kt. The minimum central pressure was near 974 mb. Thus, the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt. During the last hour or so, the hurricane's cloud pattern has started to lose organization, and this is likely a sign of the forecast increasing shear and the upcoming weakening trend. The initial motion northwestward at a slower forward speed or 325/5 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest at an even slower forward speed is forecast as Trudy shears apart vertically and becomes steered by the lighter low- to mid-level flow. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the center of the guidance envelope. On the forecast track, the hurricane will move away from southwest and west-central Mexico this afternoon and then move slowly south of Baja California Sur on Monday and Tuesday. Trudy is starting to encounter increasing southwesterly shear and a drier and more stable airmass. The dynamical intensity guidance forecasts this combination to cause rapid weakening starting near the 12 h point at the latest, and the intensity forecast follows the trend of this guidance. The new forecast follows the previous forecast in showing Trudy degenerating to a post-tropical cyclone by 60 hours and dissipating in 3 or 4 days. Both of these could occur sooner than currently predicted. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although tropical storm conditions are moving away from the Mexican coast, gusts to tropical storm-force are possible this afternoon and evening over portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the Islas Marias. 2. Coastal flooding due to storm surge should subside this afternoon and tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will continue to impact the southwest Mexican coast in Jalisco through tonight. This rainfall may produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. 4. Large swells will continue to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico and west-central Mexico during the next two to three days, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 19.5N 107.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 19.9N 107.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 20.1N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 20.3N 108.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 21.4N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z 21.9N 110.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 18 2026 000
FOPZ11 KNHC 182041
PWSEP1
HURRICANE TRUDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
2100 UTC SUN OCT 18 2026
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Trudy Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026 21:22:50 GMT