Tropical Sea Temperatures
Current US IR Satellite Loop
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 241906
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores.
Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system could
become a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm later
today or on Friday while it moves northwestward to northward.
Increasing upper-level winds, however, should prevent further
development over the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands
should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of
heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible over the islands by
Friday. Heavy rain and flash flooding could also occur well to the
east along the coast of western Africa, particularly in western
portions of Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and southwest
portions of Mauritania.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062026)
...FAY CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 9:00 PM GMT Thu Sep 24 the center of Fay was located near 29.8, -41.8 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 19
Issued at 900 PM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026 000 WTNT31 KNHC 242032 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026 ...FAY CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 41.8W ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 41.8 West. Fay is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A generally westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible overnight before weakening likely commences by Friday afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 19
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 000 WTNT21 KNHC 242032 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 2100 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 41.8W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 41.8W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 41.5W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.8N 42.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.5N 44.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.5N 46.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 41.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 19
Issued at 900 PM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026 000 WTNT41 KNHC 242033 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026 Deep convection continues near and northeast of Fay's center, though the southwestern portion of the circulation is partially exposed. There has been no significant change to the satellite intensity estimates, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt. Fay has some chance to intensify overnight before an increase in easterly shear helps mix in very dry air outside the central core. The shear is expected to get fairly strong by the weekend, which should cause Fay to decay into a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast. Fay's initial motion is unchanged at 270/5 kt. A ridge over the central Atlantic should steer the storm slowly westward during the next few days. Track guidance is in relatively good agreement, and the new forecast is basically an update of the previous one, near the Google DeepMind and HCCA aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 29.8N 41.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 29.8N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 29.5N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 27/0600Z 29.5N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 000
FONT11 KNHC 242032
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
2100 UTC THU SEP 24 2026
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Fay Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 24 Sep 2026 21:23:01 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241755
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, located about 100 miles offshore of southwestern Mexico, on
Hurricane Odalys, located well west-southwest of the southern tip
of Baja California, and on Tropical Storm Nolo, located a few
hundred miles south of the Big Island of Hawaii.
South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to
the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental
conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form early next week as the system
moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure could form about 1000 miles east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. Environmental conditions
could support some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the early middle portion of
next week. The system is forecast to move generally northeastward,
remaining well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Brown
Summary for Hurricane Odalys (EP1/EP162026)
...ODALYS HOLDS STEADY WHILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 the center of Odalys was located near 16.8, -124.9 with movement ENE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Hurricane Odalys Public Advisory Number 19
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 242033 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Odalys Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 ...ODALYS HOLDS STEADY WHILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 124.9W ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Odalys was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 124.9 West. Odalys is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight. A gradual turn toward the northeast and north is expected on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some intensity fluctuations are possible during the next day or so, followed by weakening through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Hurricane Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 19
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 242033 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026 2100 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 124.9W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS....210NE 240SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 124.9W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 125.1W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.4N 124.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.2N 123.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.2N 123.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.4N 123.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.6N 122.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.4N 122.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 22.4N 122.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 20.6N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 124.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Hurricane Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 19
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 716 WTPZ41 KNHC 242034 TCDEP1 Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 There are hints of a ragged eye feature in recent visible satellite images of Odalys. A 1735 UTC 89 GHz GMI image of the hurricane showed a mostly closed mid-level eyewall, although convection was a bit thin on the west side due to moderate westerly shear. The various UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates range from 71-84 kt. The initial intensity is held at 80 kt, in best agreement with recent D-MINT and SATCON estimates. Odalys is moving east-northeastward (060/7 kt) while being steered by a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest. The models generally agree that the hurricane should gradually turn toward the northeast and north over the next couple of days. There was a westward shift in the guidance envelope through the first 2-3 days of the forecast, and the NHC prediction was adjusted accordingly. The long-range track forecast is challenging, with Odalys forecast to become increasingly shallow while weakening and also possibly being influenced by the outer circulation of Hurricane Polo. The model spread greatly increases at 72-120 h, but the general signal is for a slower forward speed and a southward component of motion at days 3-5. The NHC forecast was nudged west of the previous one at these times, falling in between the latest TVCN and HCCA aids. In the near term, small intensity fluctuations are possible as the improved structure of Odalys could allow for a little strengthening despite moderate shear and the potential for intrusion of drier air from the west. The latest intensity guidance shows little change during this period, and the NHC forecast follows suit. After 36 h, a faster rate of weakening is forecast based on an expected increase in shear, as well as decreasing SSTs along the forecast track. These conditions will likely make it difficult for Odalys to sustain organized convection later this weekend, and the updated forecast shows Odalys as a post-tropical cyclone at 72 h based on the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery. Moisture from both Odalys and Polo will be carried a long distance into the southwestern U.S. this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 16.8N 124.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 17.4N 124.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 18.2N 123.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 19.2N 123.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 20.4N 123.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 21.6N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 22.4N 122.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 28/1800Z 22.4N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1800Z 20.6N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Hurricane Odalys Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 000
FOPZ11 KNHC 242034
PWSEP1
HURRICANE ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
2100 UTC THU SEP 24 2026
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5)
20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
Hurricane Odalys Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 24 Sep 2026 21:34:54 GMT
Summary for Hurricane Polo (EP2/EP172026)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT POLO'S WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH... As of 3:00 PM CST Thu Sep 24 the center of Polo was located near 17.1, -105.5 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 935 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
Hurricane Polo Public Advisory Number 17
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Sep 24 2026 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 242050 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 300 PM CST Thu Sep 24 2026 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT POLO'S WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 105.5W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning and Tropical Storm Watch for the southwestern coast of Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 105.5 West. Polo is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later today and Friday, followed by a west- northwestward motion on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to move away from the coast of southwestern Mexico this afternoon and evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is expected tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast to occur starting Friday night and Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 935 mb (27.61 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico this evening. RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, northern and southern Jalisco, and Nayarit. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is possible in coastal portions of the Mexican states of central Jalisco and Guerrero. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and toward Baja California Sur on Friday and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Polo Forecast Advisory Number 17
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 242049 TCMEP2 HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026 2100 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.5W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 35SE 35SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 45NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS....180NE 210SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.5W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 104.9W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.2N 106.8W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.4N 108.8W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.8N 110.5W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.7N 112.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.3N 113.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.0N 113.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 25.2N 112.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 27.9N 109.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 105.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Polo Forecast Discussion Number 17
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Sep 24 2026 981 WTPZ42 KNHC 242051 TCDEP2 Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 300 PM CST Thu Sep 24 2026 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has investigated Polo during the past few hours, and its data indicates that the eyewall replacement cycle mentioned in the previous advisory is almost complete. The first aircraft pass reported concentric eyewalls of 15 and 30 n mi diameters. Subsequent passes reported that the inner eyewall dissipated, while the remaining outer eyewall contracted to 25 n mi diameter. In addition, 700-mb flight level winds in the northeast eyewall increased by about 15 kt during the mission, with the maximum winds of 147 kt. The central pressure also started to fall during the mission, and the estimated value from data on the last pass is near 935 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 130 kt. It should be noted that the strengthening observed by the aircraft has not yet been fully reflected in satellite imagery. Polo is now moving west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. A mid-level ridge building westward from northern Mexico should steer the hurricane generally westward for the next 24-36 h or so. After that, a mid-latitude trough moving eastward across the northeastern Pacific should prevent the ridge from building farther west, with Polo likely to recurve northward and northeastward around the western end of the ridge. The track guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario, although there remains some spread in the forward speed between the slower HAFS models and the faster GFS and HCCA models. The new track, which is an update of the previous forecast, takes the center away from the southwestern coast of Mexico this evening and then has it moving across Baja California into northwestern mainland Mexico in 96-120 h. The new intensity forecast now calls for Polo to strengthen for the next 12 h or so after the end of the eyewall replacement, and Polo is expected to regain Category 5 strength tonight or Friday morning. After that, a slow weakening is expected through 96 h as Polo encounters somewhat increased shear, with the caveat that there could be some fluctuations due to additional eyewall replacement cycles. Rapid weakening is expected when the cyclone crosses Baja California and moves into mainland Mexico. The new forecast again lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. It should be noted that moisture from Hurricane Polo and Odalys will be carried a long distance into the southwestern United States this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions of southwest Mexico today. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 2. Wind gusts to tropical storm force may occur along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico this evening. 3. Polo is forecast to approach the Baja California Peninsula early next week as a hurricane. Interests there should closely monitor the latest updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 17.1N 105.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 17.2N 106.8W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 17.4N 108.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 17.8N 110.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 18.7N 112.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 20.3N 113.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 22.0N 113.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 25.2N 112.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 27.9N 109.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Polo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 000
FOPZ12 KNHC 242050
PWSEP2
HURRICANE POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
2100 UTC THU SEP 24 2026
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1
NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130
KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9)
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 12(44)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14)
P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 3(22)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) 21(65)
LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 16(28)
LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10)
P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27)
BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
BAHIA KINO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 33(47)
GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18)
GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24)
HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
HUATABAMPO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) 12(12) 9(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 67(68) 23(91) 2(93) X(93) X(93)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 24(24) 39(63) 3(66) X(66) X(66)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 30(39) 4(43) X(43) X(43)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 1(25) X(25)
20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) 3(35)
25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9)
25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Polo Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 24 Sep 2026 21:40:58 GMT